Utah is suing Kalshi, alleging its event contracts violated state gambling laws and citing more than $3 billion in wager volume and up to $61.2 million in estimated fees. Kalshi says federal derivatives rules apply; the court has yet to decide the dispute.
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The CFTC’s June 2024 proposal addressed its authority to review and potentially prohibit certain event contracts—not a blanket reclassification of prediction markets as swaps. Here’s what it covered, what it left unresolved, and why past enforcement matters.
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The CFTC wants certain event contracts treated as swaps, while carving sportsbook wagers and casino games out. But conflicting court rulings leave the fight over federal authority and state gambling laws unresolved.
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The CFTC is warning prediction markets to stop dressing up event contracts like sportsbook bets, as Kalshi battles a growing state-led crackdown. With New York, Utah and Washington pushing back hard, the fight is now over whether these products are financial markets or gambling in a suit.
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Prediction markets look simple until an exchange suspends, voids, or rewrites the contract after you’re in. This piece breaks down the rulebook, the U.S. legal fight, and why on-chain markets reduce operator meddling without eliminating risk.
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Kalshi has crossed $4 billion in weekly trading volume for the first time, a milestone that says a lot about where prediction markets are heading. What used to look like a quirky side bet for nerds, traders, and political junkies is starting to look like a serious market category with real liquidity, real demand, and […]
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