HYPE was trading near $75 on October 25, down almost 19% over the previous month. Weak derivatives activity and bearish momentum readings are adding pressure. Exchange outflows and Hyperliquid’s fee-funded purchases could provide demand, but neither guarantees a recovery.
- Support: A daily close below roughly $75 could put $70, then $65, in focus.
- Resistance: A move back above $80 would be an early sign of improvement, not confirmation of a trend reversal.
- Uncertainty: The available flow and buyback figures do not show whether sustained buying is taking place.
The market figures below are snapshots from October 25, not live quotes. No year or intraday timestamp was provided, so prices and activity may differ from current conditions.
HYPE’s price is testing an approximate support area
Crypto.news reported that HYPE was trading at about $75.47 on October 25, up roughly 0.15% over 24 hours. The token was down 3.65% over seven days and 18.87% over the past month, after a September rally toward $98. Its reported 24-hour range was $74.53-$76.82, with trading volume of $651.2 million.
The daily range already dipped below $75, making that level better understood as a support area than a precise floor. HYPE had also struggled to get back above $80 after retreating from its September high.
HypedLaunches identified $70-$75 as a weekly support zone, with Fibonacci-based support near $65. A daily close below the $75 area could put $70 in focus, while $65 is another level traders may watch. These are technical scenarios, not guaranteed stopping points.
On the upside, $80 is the first hurdle, followed by resistance around $85 and $90. HypedLaunches placed broader resistance at $90-$100. Its $150-$200 scenario depends on a confirmed breakout above $100. Current price action does not support that as a near-term target.
Futures activity has cooled, but the data is not a market-wide verdict
CoinGlass reported that 24-hour HYPE futures trading volume fell 15.16% to $1.40 billion, while futures open interest declined 0.52% to $3.07 billion. Open interest is the value or number of futures contracts still open. Volume measures trading over a given period. Neither figure alone shows whether traders are bullish or bearish.
CoinGlass also reported a 93.84% rise in options volume to $2.11 million, while options open interest stood at $71.02 million. The percentage increase is striking, but options activity remains much smaller than futures activity.
A separate Elfa.ai snapshot estimated that 78.1% of the futures positioning it tracked was long, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous day. A long position benefits when the price rises. Elfa.ai’s figure covers only the positions and venues in its data. The snapshot does not show what share of HYPE derivatives activity that represents, or whether the estimate is based on accounts, positions or notional exposure.
A concentration of long positions can leave traders exposed to a sharp fall. If leveraged positions breach risk limits, exchanges may close them by force in a process called liquidation. That can add selling pressure, but the positioning estimate does not show that a wave of liquidations is imminent.
Technical indicators show weakness, not a reliable forecast
HYPE’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures recent price momentum, was 34.29, below its moving average of 39.57. The RSI was approaching 30, a commonly used oversold threshold. That can signal sustained selling, but it does not mean a rebound is due.
The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), another trend and momentum indicator, was also negative. Its main line stood at -2.635, below the signal line at -2.039, and the histogram read -0.596. Both lines were below zero, suggesting downward momentum had not reversed.
These indicators describe past and current price behavior. They cannot tell us what comes next. A bearish reading can persist, and an oversold reading can become more oversold.
Exchange outflows and fund purchases are not proof of a floor
CoinGlass recorded approximately $2.47 million in net spot exchange outflows on October 25. Negative readings also appeared often in September and October, including several daily withdrawals of $20 million-$30 million.
Exchange-flow figures track movements involving exchange wallets. Tokens leaving those wallets may be moving to private wallets, other venues or custodians. The data does not reveal the reason for each transfer, so outflows do not prove that investors are accumulating HYPE or plan to hold it long term.
Hyperliquid is a blockchain-based trading platform best known for perpetual futures, derivative contracts with no expiry. HYPE is its associated token. The Assistance Fund reportedly uses eligible protocol revenue to purchase HYPE. The AQAv2 mechanism directs another category of eligible income to the fund.
By October 13, the Assistance Fund had reportedly spent $1.36 billion on token repurchases and accumulated more than 48 million HYPE. Recent estimates put protocol fees at about $1.685 million over 24 hours and $54.3 million over 30 days. Those figures estimate protocol activity. They are not income owed to token holders or a promise of future purchases.
Buybacks can create demand when they happen, but they have not stopped HYPE from falling. The reported figures also do not say what happens to purchased tokens afterward. Without that information, it is premature to treat the purchases as a guaranteed, permanent reduction in circulating supply.
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework lets approved developers launch additional perpetual markets. That could affect platform activity, but more markets or higher fees do not automatically mean stronger or lasting demand for HYPE.
Key questions about HYPE’s price outlook
-
What could a break below $75 mean?
A daily close below the approximate support area could bring $70 into focus, with HypedLaunches identifying further support near $65. Neither level is a guaranteed floor.
-
What would signal an early improvement?
Getting back above $80 would be a constructive first sign. It would not, by itself, confirm a sustained recovery.
-
Do exchange outflows prove accumulation?
No. The figures show net movement from tracked exchange wallets, not why the tokens moved or what their owners plan to do.
-
Do Assistance Fund purchases guarantee a rebound?
No. Reported purchases and fee estimates matter, but they do not guarantee continued buying or a higher HYPE price.
HYPE’s short-term direction remains uncertain. The indicators show pressure, while the outflows and fund purchases may provide sources of demand. The available data cannot show whether those sources will lead to sustained buying or whether buyers will defend the support area.
